(MMO) – The backing for veteran Tan Sri Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah as the next Umno president rose not because of his own appeal, but due to an emotional desire to punish two competitors linked to the leadership that led the party to defeat, a survey revealed.

Hisommudin Bakar, executive director of research firm Ilham Centre that carried out the survey over the past eight days, said it was difficult to predict Umno members' voting patterns this Saturday based solely on the individual appeal of Tengku Razaleigh, vice president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and former Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin (KJ).

"Datuk Seri Zahid Hamidi has the advantage based on his track record of being close to the grassroots but the psychology of the grassroots delegates have been affected by the defeat in the last general election, causing the pattern to be difficult to predict absolutely.

"The phenomenon of blaming the old leadership including Zahid Hamidi and KJ has caused the pathway for Ku Li to be accepted to increase from day to day.

"This is not because of the strength of Ku Li's direction, but more towards sentiments and emotion," he said in a statement today on the survey findings.

"Zahid Hamidi is forced to persevere under the push from this pressure. KJ is successful in getting a percentage of the support but it is minimum and even becomes a vote-splitter to those who wish to challenge the status quo and this gives a slight advantage to Zahid Hamidi," he said.

Hisommudin dissected the strengths and weaknesses of these three key contenders in a five-man contest for the Umno president post, noting that delegates with voting rights perceive Zahid to have the advantage over his two rivals due to his good ties with the grassroots.

"This statement is based on the grassroots' view of Zahid Hamidi as a leader that is loyal and has already been tested in Umno's struggle. The experience of campaigning while contesting for the vice-president post in the 2013 elections has given him an advantage as he has good ties with Umno's grassroots," he said, also noting Zahid's image of being religious added to his advantage.

Tengku Razaleigh, popularly known as Ku Li, comes at a close second where he is seen as an experienced leader and the best candidate to face Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

"Ku Li receives quite a big support as he is seen as the best alternative for the leadership partnership among candidates for deputy and supreme council — besides Zahid Hamidi's camp — to be in power," he said.

He noted that candidates to be Umno division chiefs and challenging the incumbents also support Tengku Razaleigh, as he is seen as a clean leader who is scandal-free and not tainted by former party president Datuk Seri Najib Razak.

As for the young and progressive candidate Khairy, Hisommudin said he is the candidate of choice for delegates from the youth and women wings who desire change, but predicted that he will ultimately fail to win the necessary support to be party president.

"Ideas for renewal and statements that the media are interested in makes KJ a popular candidate in the eyes of the public but it will be difficult to in the hearts of Umno delegates," he said.

Hisommudin also noted that last week's results in the Umno polls for the Youth and Wanita wings chiefs won by Datuk Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki and Datuk Noraini Ahmad, respectively, showed a significant desire among Umno grassroots members for change.

Hisommudin concluded that the survey showed Zahid as leading the Umno president race with 51 per cent of party divisions backing him, while Tengku Razaleigh gives off a fierce competition at 35 per cent, and with Khairy having six per cent support and another eight per cent divisions not giving off clear indications of their choices.

He said it was still possible for Tengku Razaleigh to pull off an upset win with a slim majority, if party delegates buck the tradition of being persuaded and accepting compromises in the lead up to party polls.

The survey polling 581 Umno delegates from 101 party divisions throughout Peninsular Malaysia was conducted face-to-face for eight days from June 21 to June 28.